Phishing campaign targeting iPhone users; CSA warns against replying to unknown iMessage senders
Suspicious messages sent by seemingly legitimate sources should be verified through official channels, or the anti-scam hotline at 1799.ST PHOTO: GIN TAY
SINGAPORE - Apple iPhone users should not reply to messages from unknown senders, amid a phishing campaign targeting those who use the tech giant's iMessage app.
The Cyber Security Agency of Singapore (CSA) said in an advisory on Jan 15 that cybercriminals have been sending fraudulent messages to "manipulate users into disabling iMessage's built-in security features".
Seemingly coming from legitimate sources, the messages would instruct people to reply, such as by typing "Y".
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In doing so, iMessage's built-in phishing protection for that message would be disabled, and links from unknown senders become accessible, which leads to cyber-security risks.
These include theft of personal information, installation of malware or spyware, and possible fraud, warned CSA.
It recommended several precautionary measures, chief among them being to ignore messages from unknown senders.
CSA also advised keeping the "Filter Unknown Senders" setting enabled, which can be performed by going to Settings, clicking on Messages, and then Filter Unknown Senders.
Suspicious messages sent by seemingly legitimate sources should be verified through official channels, or the anti-scam hotline at 1799.
CSA added that caution should be exercised when links are being sent through messages regardless of the sender's identity, and suspicious messages should be reported through ScamShield.
Meanwhile, phishing messages that seem to be from Apple should be reported to reportphishing@apple.com, accompanied by a screenshot.
As for those who have already replied to phishing messages, CSA advised blocking the sender and monitoring accounts for suspicious activity.
If banking details or credit card credentials were shared, individuals should inform their bank immediately.
CSA said: "If you observe any suspicious applications installed or installed any applications under instruction, uninstall them immediately," adding that passwords should also be changed, especially if the same one was used for other accounts.
Lastly, the agency said users should lodge a police report if any financial losses were incurred.
"Staying informed and cautious can help protect your personal and financial information," said CSA.
Scammers have continually made use of phishing messages to cheat victims of their money. In December, there had been at least 17 such cases associated with the Land Transport Authority, where more than half of them saw grifters using messaging platforms to con people.
At least $33,000 was lost in that particular scam variant.
Aqil Hamzah is a journalist covering breaking news at The Straits Times, with interests in crime and technology.
Woman jailed after bank account linked to her received nearly $4.8m in scam proceeds
SINGAPORE – In need of money, a woman who was just released from prison agreed to share her Singpass details with another person as she was promised she would receive $60,000 annually.
Sakinah Waheeda Abdul Manan, 34, is back behind bars after a bank account linked to her received the benefits of a phishing scam totalling nearly $4.8 million.
She was sentenced to 14 months' jail on Jan 8 after she pleaded guilty to charges, including that of misusing a computer system.
Court documents did not state if Sakinah, who had been in and out of jail for drug-related and other offences, received the promised annual reward.
She met a person identified as "Alan" on messaging platform Telegram and gave him her Singpass details.
Deputy Public Prosecutor Jordon Li did not disclose when Sakinah first got to know Alan, who had said that she would be paid for such details.
Alan used her details to register two companies, called Froxify Trade and Frox Designz.
Then, using online services, he opened a bank account for Froxify Trade. In September 2021, the account received the benefits of a phishing scam totalling nearly $4.8million.
The prosecutor added: "(As part of the arrangement), the accused would be the registered local resident director of the companies (which) would be operated by 'foreign directors'.
"The accused did not need to do anything in relation to the companies. This raised the accused's suspicions as she was being offered a lot of money and did not have to do anything in return."
Despite her suspicions, Sakinah attended an interview at the bank as part of the process of opening Froxify Trade's account.
Alan provided her with information about the firm's purported business so that she could address the bank's queries.
The account was opened on July 28, 2021, and received the scam proceeds on three separate occasions in late September that year. These funds were dissipated soon after.
On Oct 5, 2021, the Commercial Affairs Department (CAD) received information from the United States that the e-mail system of a company there had been compromised in a phishing scam and the ill-gotten gains were deposited into Froxify Trade's bank account.
Only around $8,600 was left when the CAD seized the account two days later.
In a separate incident, Alan told Sakinah some time before Aug 23, 2021, that he would pay her $1,500 if she opened another bank account and allowed him to control it.
She did as she was told that month and shared with him information that included the internet banking details linked to this new account.
On Aug 23, 2021, a victim of a cryptocurrency investment scam in Singapore deposited $8,000 into it before alerting the police.
Sakinah, who received the $1,500 reward from Alan, was charged in court in 2024.
An international study of around 99 million people confirmed known serious side effects of COVID-19 vaccination. It also identified a possible relationship between the first dose of the Moderna vaccine and a small risk of a neurological condition. Social media posts about the study left out information on the vaccines' benefits and the rarity of the side effects.
Full Story
COVID-19 vaccines — like all vaccines and other medical products — come with side effects, including serious side effects in rare cases. The vaccines were rolled out to protect people from a novel virus that has killed millions of people globally and would likely have killed millions more without the arrival of the vaccines. There is a broad consensus from experts and governmental health agencies that the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination outweigh the risks.
Researchers have scrutinized the COVID-19 vaccines' safety and continue to do so. A study published Feb. 12 in the journal Vaccine reported on an international group of more than 99 million people who received COVID-19 vaccines, primarily finding links to known rare side effects. The study largely focused on the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, which have been widely given in the U.S., as well as the AstraZeneca vaccine, which was never authorized in the U.S.
"What we take away, is that the Covid-19 vaccination campaigns have been very effective in preventing severe disease," study co-author Anders Hviid, head of the department of epidemiology research at the Statens Serum Institut in Denmark, told us in an email. "The few serious side effects that we have observed in this and other studies have been rare."
Many popular posts on social media have shared results from the study, some lacking the context that the identified health problems are rare, that most aren't new and that the vaccines have proven benefits. Various posts made unfounded claims, stating or implying that people should not have received the vaccines, that the risks outweigh the benefits or that the risk of the rare side effects is greater than was reported in the study.
"Hundreds of millions of people were used as lab rats and now the truth that WE ALL ALREADY KNEW can no longer be denied," said one popular post, referring to the vaccines as "experimental" and "UNTESTED." The post shared a screenshot of the headline of a New York Post article about the new study, which read, "COVID vaccines linked to slight increases in heart, brain, blood disorders: study."
"This thing was forced on people who faced almost no risk from Covid," said another widely read post. "It is completely unacceptable." The post shared statistics from the paper without making it clear that serious health problems after vaccination were rare and that risk varied by vaccine type and dose.
The Vaccine study confirmed that the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines are linked in rare cases to myocarditis and pericarditis, conditions involving inflammation of the heart muscle and lining. The rate of myocarditis was most elevated after the second dose of the Moderna vaccine. Myocarditis risk — which is greatest in men in their late teens and early twenties — was identified via vaccine safety monitoring and first reported in 2021. Based on the current evidence, the CDC says, the benefit of vaccination outweighs the risk of these conditions, which improve for most people after medical treatment and rest.
The study confirmed neurological and blood clotting conditions associated with the AstraZeneca vaccine. In the U.S., these problems were linked to the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, contributing to this vaccine no longer being recommended or available.
The study also identified a new possible safety signal indicating a potential link between the first dose of the Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines and rare neurological conditions. This included an association between the first doses of the vaccines and acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, or ADEM, an autoimmune condition that causes inflammation of the brain and spinal cord.
Hviid emphasized that the researchers only saw these neurological events after first doses of the two vaccines. "We did not see these signals following further doses of these two Covid-19 vaccines, nor did we see them after any dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine which has been more widely used," he said.
"We are also talking about very rare events," Hviid continued. "As an example, the association between the first dose of Moderna and acute inflammation of the brain and spine would, if causal, correspond to 1 case per 1.75 million vaccinated. It is only due to the sheer scale of our study, that we have been able to identify this minute potential risk."
Study Bolsters the Evidence Serious COVID-19 Vaccine Side Effects Are Rare
The Vaccine study drew on national or regional health records from eight countries with institutions participating in the Global Vaccine Data Network, an international group that studies vaccine safety. The researchers analyzed health outcomes after around 184 million doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, 36 million doses of the Moderna vaccine and 23 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine.
The researchers focused on 13 health problems that either had a known association with vaccination or for which there was some rationale to investigate whether there was an association. To determine whether the health problems were associated with vaccination, they compared the expected rates of the health problems — or the number of health events that should occur based on background rates in the regions studied — with the number of events they observed in the 42 days after vaccination.
"This study confirms the primary already detected and validated side effects established by previous literature," Jeffrey S. Morris, director of the division of biostatistics at the University of Pennsylvania's Perelman School of Medicine, told us via email, referring to the rare heart conditions associated with the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines, as well as the rare conditions associated with the AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines.
Morris said that findings on ADEM — the rare autoimmune neurological condition linked to first doses of the Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines — "might be a new safety signal."
ADEM involves inflammation to the brain and spinal cord, arising most often in children following an infectious illness. It has a sudden onset and typically eventually improves, with a full recovery in many, although not all, cases.
After the first dose of the Moderna vaccine, researchers observed seven ADEM cases, when they expected two. As we've said, Hviid calculated the rate of this side effect — if ultimately shown to be related to vaccination — to be 1 in 1.75 million following the first dose of the Moderna vaccine.
The data show "this was indeed an EXTREMELY rare adverse event," Morris said, referring to ADEM. "It is understandable at this incidence rate why it may not have been detected before now, and why a study with 99 million participants like this is important to find even the most rare serious adverse events that are potential minority harm risks of these vaccines."
The authors of the study wrote that more research is needed into ADEM following COVID-19 vaccination, saying that "the number of cases of this rare event were small and the confidence interval wide, so results should be interpreted with caution and confirmed in future studies." The authors also wrote that neurological events have been found to occur at a much higher rate after COVID-19 than after COVID-19 vaccination.
The study means that "early warning systems are solid," said Marc Veldhoen, an immunologist at the Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes in Portugal, in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. "To avoid any adverse reaction is not possible, but, identifying those at higher risk may be possible."
Identifying those at greater risk of side effects can help guide decisions on which vaccines to recommend and what problems doctors should watch for in their patients.
Editor's note: SciCheck's articles providing accurate health information and correcting health misinformation are made possible by a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The foundation has no control over FactCheck.org's editorial decisions, and the views expressed in our articles do not necessarily reflect the views of the foundation.
Ms Tomiko Itooka, who had four children and five grandchildren, died on Dec 29 in the nursing home she lived in.PHOTO: AFP
- The world's oldest person, a Japanese woman named Tomiko Itooka, has died at the age of 116, the city where she lived, Ashiya, announced on Jan 4.
Ms Itooka, who had four children and five grandchildren, died on Dec 29 at a nursing home where she had lived since 2019, the southern city's mayor said in a statement.
She was born on May 23, 1908, in the commercial hub of Osaka, near Ashiya – four months before the Ford Model T was launched in the United States.
In her older age, Ms Itooka enjoyed bananas and Calpis, a milky soft drink popular in Japan, according to the mayor's statement.
Women typically enjoy longevity in Japan, but the country is facing a worsening demographic crisis as its expanding elderly population leads to soaring medical and welfare costs, with a shrinking labour force to pay for it.
As at September, Japan counted more than 95,000 people who were 100 or older – 88 per cent of whom were women.
Of the country's 124 million people, nearly a third are 65 or older. AFP
From Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to Prabowo Subianto and Vladimir Putin, these power players will have an outsize role in developments around the world. The Straits Times' foreign bureaus outline how they could approach the new year.
These power players will have an outsize role in developments around the world.ST ILLUSTRATION: CHNG CHOON HIONG
PUBLISHED Jan 04, 2025, 05:00 AM
Donald Trump says "tariff" is the most beautiful word in the English language. But he is not letting on how complicated the process really is.
A tariff on China is another matter. Trump can draw authority from investigations into China's trade "misbehaviour" and make a snap announcement that might have taken a year to produce in his first term.
He will find support from the Republican-dominated Congress and an array of hawkish think-tanks, which have offered their own road maps for rescinding China's permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status and erecting a new tariff structure to kill off any dependence on China.
If there is to be an economic divorce, the prenups are ready.
The argument that his administration will marshal could go something like this: For over two decades, China has played the World Trade Organisation (WTO) like a fiddle. It has not kept its promises to be open, fair and reciprocal.
In this telling, Chinese President Xi Jinping has perfected a mercantilist trade policy with tax cuts, hidden subsidies and a cheap renminbi designed to dominate economically. And a wronged America is dealing with de-industrialisation and dependence on supply chains steered by a hostile adversary.
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That is the premise behind a Bill to end China's PNTR, introduced in November by Senator Marco Rubio, Trump's nominee for secretary of state. It arms Trump with what he needs – leverage in trade talks with China.
If the Bill is passed by the incoming Congress in January, which looks likely, China will no longer merit the non-discriminatory treatment accorded to the other 165 WTO members. It will dissolve the unconditional most-favoured-nation status for Chinese imports, leaving Trump free to apply whatever tariff rates he likes.
Then US President Donald Trump waving during joint statements with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Nov 9, 2017.PHOTO: REUTERS
The Trump effect
A reckoning in US-China ties – the most consequential relationship in the world – is inevitable. Yet, this example also shows the outsize effects leaders can have on the foreign policies pursued by their countries.
Who is in charge matters, as policy choices become less cut and dried in a complex world. A record year of elections has also sapped incumbents or ushered in new leaders who may strike a different path in international affairs. Nowhere is this starker than in the US.
A Joe Biden administration relied on the playbook of alliances and unilateral trade restrictions designed to safeguard economic interests and national security. Trump much prefers a confrontational approach – through antagonism, brinkmanship and bluster – and to place the ball in the other side's court.
The waves Trump will create may dissipate – or heighten – depending on how world leaders react. Their collective action will shape the outlook for 2025, including the prospects for Singapore and its immediate region.
Watching all this across the Pacific will be the same adversary Trump faced in 2017, husbanding an economy that is weaker by all accounts. Can President Xi, shaken by a property meltdown and ebbing foreign investment, call his bluff?
Will he mirror Trump on tariffs, keep Americans out of China's large market, which has become the testing ground for technologies of tomorrow? Or will the nation, known to test newly inaugurated American presidents with a belligerent gesture, turn the page by surprising him with an offering of peace?
Another complication – more players. How will the chief executives of top-rung companies from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, who are investing massively in the US market for semiconductors, batteries, electric vehicles and more, react? Will they hit pause or up the ante?
Will the nearly 6,000 American companies that are invested in Asean skip the region with the world's highest growth rates for decades to come, or double down like it's casino night at Marina Bay Sands?
While Trump plays tariff tag, the game has moved online. Asean is negotiating a Digital Economy Framework Agreement to cash in on the new frontier worth trillions of dollars. Will the billionaire businessman who prides himself on his art of the deal let such a big one slip by?
Xi Jinping's most challenging year?
Across the Pacific Ocean, the mood is subdued. There is every possibility that 2025 could turn out to be one of the most challenging years of President Xi's 13-year rule.
The economy is in its worst state in more than a decade, facing persistent deflation that threatens to rival the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.
Millions are jobless, especially young people who have graduated into a poor job market with few openings but many layoffs.
On once-bustling streets, shops stay stubbornly shuttered; those open send staff to stand by the door, cajoling passers-by to come in and spend some money.
The air of anxiety and pessimism is thick across Chinese cities. Mr Xi must confront serious problems, many of which are own goals, sprung from a state interventionist economic policy that he favours.
He must help Chinese families put food on the table, give them hope and confidence; he needs to give them reason to continue believing in the Chinese Dream.
Chinese President Xi Jinping must confront serious problems at home, many of which are own goals, sprung from a state interventionist economic policy that he favours.PHOTO: AFP
How big of a saboteur Trump will be to Mr Xi's massive undertaking is hard to tell now. But he has stacked his would-be Cabinet with some of the most vocal China hawks, and he has threatened tariffs of 60 per cent.
Trump 1.0 made many nationalists out of the Chinese, although plenty also quietly blame President Xi for his assertive foreign policy and a U-turn on Deng Xiaoping's preference to lie low and bide China's time.
China is better prepared for Trump 2.0, and can anticipate the re-elected US president's game plan. But the Chinese economy is also frailer than it was eight years ago, when the trade war first erupted.
Mr Xi's courtship of emerging nations to find new sources of growth and expand its influence will intensify, even as he attempts a juggling act to boost economic recovery, restore business confidence, maintain domestic stability and tackle fresh challenges posed by a second Trump presidency.
Trump's possible retreat from multilateralism and alliances will give Mr Xi the opportunity to make a bigger play for global leadership and gain new markets for Chinese goods.
Chinese citizens in Peru awaiting the arrival of Chinese President Xi Jinping outside Air Force Base 8, annexed to the Jorge Chavez International Airport, in Callao, Peru, on Nov 14, 2024.PHOTO: AFP
From his signature Belt and Road Initiative to his outsize presence in the Brics grouping, the Chinese leader has already fashioned himself into something of a godfather of the Global South.
There could be more goodies on the way – loans, scholarships, zero tariffs, investments, market access – if Mr Xi were to take bolder steps to challenge US dominance and redefine global governance.
Meanwhile, Beijing's fervent defence of its "core interests" will not diminish despite its domestic preoccupations. Its assertive actions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea will continue, especially if it believes there are agitators at play.
What roles will minilaterals Aukus and Quad – meant to counter a domineering China in the region – play under a transactional Trump is also far from certain.
A test for Japan, a reversal of fortunes on Korean peninsula
In the shadow of an assertive China and a combative US, Asia stirs. In a region where the gravest threat is viewed as coming from China – and the other East Asian giant, South Korea, is temporarily in turmoil – Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba asserts that the lynchpin for East Asia's security is the US-Japan alliance.
There is little doubt that Japan has shared interests with the US – a free and open Indo-Pacific and the preservation of regional stability. With the Biden administration, Japan forged a latticework of trilateral security partnerships that it would like to see maintained through a Trump presidency. But Trump's transactional, America-first approach to diplomacy and his impatience with multilateral forums might skew US foreign policy towards bilateralism.
Mr Ishiba has an ambitious vision for a muscular defence posture anchored by a formidable Japanese military capable of countering regional threats and a network of like-minded nations.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has an ambitious vision for a muscular defence posture anchored by a formidable Japanese military.PHOTO: AFP
He takes office after a long line of predecessors shored up security cooperation and shifted the country away from pacifism, a norm enshrined in Japan's Constitution since the end of World War II.
"The US derives great strategic benefits from its military facilities and areas in Japan," he said in a landmark speech in November shortly after taking office.
The time is right, he says, to broach an update on their longstanding "asymmetrical bilateral treaty", in which the US must defend Japan while the latter provides the use of its bases.
Mr Ishiba is keen to restructure an existing security treaty for greater equality and burden-sharing. He may well pursue this, having suggested previously the idea of stationing Japanese self-defence forces in Guam, a strategically important Pacific island. Less likely is the revision of an agreement regarding the stationing of US forces on Japanese soil.
But he could well find the forceful rhetoric hard to live up to. A series of blunders, including in calling a snap election shortly after taking power in October, which lost his party the parliamentary majority, has weakened his hand, and his approval ratings indicate his electorate has little confidence in him.
In so many ways, he seems the antithesis of the strong, charismatic leader liked by Trump. With his poor command of English, Mr Ishiba could find it a struggle to replicate the diplomatic mastery of his late political rival Shinzo Abe – who was golf buddy, confidant and on first-name terms with Trump.
At the time, Mr Ishiba was critical of what he saw as pandering by Mr Abe. But with his own inability to gain more than a five-minute congratulatory phone message with Trump – unlike Mr Abe's widow Akie, who was invited by the Trumps to a private dinner on Dec 15 and is said to have softened the ground for a leaders' meeting– it is now up to the Premier to master the art of the deal in persuading Trump that they share the same interests, all while navigating domestic political minefields.
Mr Ishiba will likely pledge even more Japanese investments in the US economy, while reminding Trump of its contributions. Since 2019, Japan has been the largest foreign investor in the US, where Japanese companies employ about one million Americans.
Mr Ishiba's challenges for shoring up regional security are not helped by developments on the Korean peninsula. There, the implosion of the conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol, a critical figure who had improved ties with Japan and supported a US-Japan-South Korea trilateral grouping, has left the South in political turmoil.
Demonstrators holding effigies of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (right) and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo during a protest in Seoul on Dec 28, 2024.PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
Despite the worries over Trump's return, it is domestic distractions that plague both US allies in North-east Asia. With the ruling People Power Party determined to hold on to power following Mr Yoon's impeachment for his dangerous dalliance with martial law, South Korea's leadership vacuum could result in lost opportunities in foreign affairs.
If Mr Yoon's impeachment is upheld by the court and a snap presidential election is held, relations with Japan may sour. The Democratic Party, which is likely to win, has repeatedly characterised Mr Yoon's olive branch policy towards Japan as "humiliating diplomacy".
In stark contrast, the stars are looking aligned for Mr Yoon's neighbour, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The hermit kingdom is looking less isolated, particularly after Mr Kim warmed to his "closest comrade", Russian President Vladimir Putin, even inking a defence treaty in June 2024.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a welcoming ceremony in Pyongyang on June 19, 2024.PHOTO: AFP
The wily Mr Kim has also lent muscle to Russia's war in Ukraine, dispatching more than 10,000 elite troops, in a calculated move expected to reap him much-needed foreign currency to prop up his economy as well as access to coveted military and nuclear technology.
But more than six years have passed since they last corresponded, and Mr Kim now has more levers at his disposal. Pyongyang's nuclear and missile technologies have improved significantly, likely with Russia's help. Mr Kim was all too happy to demonstrate this with the launch of a new Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile and the unveiling of a uranium enrichment facility in 2024.
All this puts Mr Kim on a strong footing in 2025 to make demands. He wants to be taken seriously, for his regime to survive, and for North Korea to be recognised. He is setting a high bar for any third Trump-Kim summit – which will need more than love letters to kick-start, given how swimmingly things are going for Mr Kim.
This, coupled with Trump's impending return to power and a US turn towards unilateralism, could reignite a push for South Korea to go nuclear to protect itself. Seven out of every 10 South Koreans already support their country developing its own nuclear weapons.
India and Australia: Two middle powers, two different paths
A Trump return also brings into sharper focus the dilemma of managing relations with the US and China. In New Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has an answer: "Vishwamitra", a Sanskrit word that translates into "everybody's friend".
Mr Modi famously told Russian President Putin that "it's not time for war" while the world had more pressing challenges, and convinced the US that India had to buy discounted oil from Russia to power its economy and keep global oil prices stable.
His open line to Mr Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu allows him to claim the role of global peacenik. He is also on back-slapping terms with Trump, who, while criticising India for its high tariffs, has been complimentary towards Mr Modi.
Then US President Donald Trump with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a joint press conference in New Delhi on Feb 25, 2020.PHOTO: AFP
Mr Modi, aware of the larger goal of growing the economy and needing Chinese investments in his legacy-building third term, has also shrewdly chosen to thaw relations with China. In October, he reached an agreement with President Xi, in their first bilateral meeting in five years, on patrols along a disputed border in the Himalayans – the site of deadly clashes – opening the door to slowly normalise other facets of the relationship.
Mr ModiknowsIndia derives its diplomatic influence from being everywhere all at once – with one foot in the China-dominated Brics and another in the Quad – while asserting itself as the "voice of the Global South".
Hence, India's longest-serving PM since Jawaharlal Nehru will attempt to repeat his success through 2025 by projecting a friendly image and asserting moral authority in touting India's status as the world's most populous democracy, even as critics accuse him of shrinking space for dissent within India and deepening religious polarisation.
In a world with rising US-China tensions, India offers a viable economic alternative to China. Many fund managers and foreign investors are bullish on what they see as "India's decade", after Mr Modi vowed to make India a developed country by 2047, its centenary year.
With a moderate and growing trade surplus with the US, Mr Modi knows some give-and-take will be needed. He is optimistic that Trump will value steady US-India ties, given their common concerns over China.
Though Mr Modi enjoys great popularity at home, he needs to push through more labour reforms, improve the ease of doing business, rein in unemployment, and ensure that the upsurge in Hindu nationalism does not lead to communal tensions that challenge the country's stability.
Trump's return and the likely scramble by countries to create some measure of stability for themselves once he takes office might feel like deja vu to some.
In Trump's first term from 2016 to 2020, Australia, along with Japan, had led efforts to keep him engaged and help persuade him to elevate the status of the Quad, a security grouping made up of Australia, India, Japan and the US.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will find himself shouldering a similar burden and playing a familiar role. After leading his Labor Party to victory at the polls in May 2022, Mr Albanese jumped on a plane barely two days later for a meeting of the Quad with Mr Biden, then Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Mr Modi.
That hectic start to his leadership illustrates the dual challenge he faces in 2025.
On the one hand, Mr Albanese will be counted on to exercise regional leadership in holding up regional alliances and groupings such as the Quad, amid rising tensions in the region and a return of a US president known to be strong-willed and unpredictable.
This is a role Mr Albanese himself has embraced, in touting his credentials working with global leaders and ordinary Australians.
(Front row, from left) South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese posing with other Group of 20 leaders in Rio de Janeiro on Nov 18, 2024.PHOTO: REUTERS
On the other hand, Mr Albanese is coming under pressure to focus on the domestic economy in the last stretch of a politically charged season, as polls must be held by May. His party currently trails the opposition Liberal-National coalition and he must placate voter frustrations over rising living costs. Travelling abroad would take him away from efforts to shore up his political position.
He will be on the alert for signs of potential disengagement by an incoming Trump administration, which could determine how active a role he plays regionally – a job he, unfortunately, has precious little time for in the first five months of the year.
South-east Asia will adjust
In this contested world, how will South-east Asia fare?
Quite well, if you take Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's words at face value. Much of the world still regards the region as possessing the greatest growth potential, as it rides the wave of growth from industrialisation, powered by companies searching for China+1 locations.
Trump's tariffs may sting, but South-east Asia can still strike some sweet deals with the growth-focused Trump administration. With some luck, there might even be a digital free trade agreement with Asean. Just don't expect him to show up at every Asean-related summit.
Asean and Chinese leaders posing for a group photo during the 27th Asean-China Summit in Vientiane on Oct 10, 2024.PHOTO: REUTERS
With Trump's return looming large, Asean leaders have pushed back on protectionism and concentrated on making headway into regional integration and trade. These export-oriented economies – home to nearly 700 million people, and making up altogether the world's fifth-largest economy – have some of the world's highest trade-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios and much to lose if Trump enacts across-the-board tariffs.
Asean has not stood still. A Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that came into force in 2022 has boosted trade with Australia, China, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand. Some have also signed up to the amended Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement to deepen economic integration, an arrangement Trump pulled the US out of on his first day in office in 2017.
Two big Asean initiatives, years in the works, are expected to be finalised under Datuk Seri Anwar's watch. First is an upgrade to the Asean-China Free Trade Area, which will boost intra-regional economic exchange and investments. Second is the Digital Economy Framework Agreement, which is projected to double the size of Asean's digital economy in 2030 by lowering barriers and developing common standards for cross border e-commerce, digital payments and the use of artificial intelligence.
Mr Anwar will certainly claim victory over Asean's deliverables by positioning them as his efforts to create a conducive regional environment for foreign investments and advance Malaysia's economic development.
Yet, he wants more – a shot at global statesmanship. This is a leader who sees Malaysia's Asean chairmanship for 2025 as nothing less than a chance to reshape the world and the direction of the grouping.
Decrying the "old unipolar world", the outspoken 77-year-old has called for an overhaul of the global financial system, which "carries the DNA of the Bretton Woods institutions serving the Global North at the expense of the Global South".
Cynical observers may call it opportunism, but Mr Anwar says it is time the Global South (and East) came to the fore in changing existing structures that "marginalise developing nations".
"As we confront these challenges, Asean stands as an example of how South-South partnership can advance a more equitable, multilateral global order," he said on Dec 2 at the Common Action Forum in Kuala Lumpur.
The key word here is "can", as these lofty statements belie the fundamental tension between Malaysia's foreign policy activism and Asean's consensus-based approach to handling regional issues.
Two elephants in the room cast doubt on Mr Anwar's desire to make Asean great again – the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar since 2021 and escalating tensions in the South China Sea.
Expectations of Myanmar are low, with Asean's five-point consensus having never been met. The junta's plan for elections could create fresh momentum. An agreement just to allow humanitarian aid and access to political detainees would be seen as a victory.
Similarly, tying up the preamble and some paragraphs of a code of conduct on the South China Sea between Beijing and South-east Asia's claimants would be counted as significant progress.
A crisis in the South China Sea, on the other hand, would test Mr Anwar's leadership of Asean, not to mention the bloc's cohesion and America's credibility, particularly if it involves US allies like the Philippines.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim being given the ceremonial gavel by Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone during the closing ceremony of the 44th and 45th Asean Summits on Oct 11, 2024.PHOTO: AFP
Down south, regional leadership may be contested by Indonesia's "first foreign policy president", Mr Prabowo Subianto, who won a strong mandate in 2024 when he garnered 58 per cent of the votes in a three-way presidential contest.
Less than a month after being sworn in, Mr Prabowo embarked on a whirlwind diplomatic tour – visiting China and the US in the same week, and attending major multilateral summits like Apec – quickly signalling his keenness in placing Indonesia at the heart of international diplomacy.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto (front row, centre) and other world leaders posing for a photo during the Apec summit in Lima, Peru, on Nov 16, 2024.PHOTO: REUTERS
His motivations may be economic rather than geopolitical or personal. Central to the vision for his presidency is a bold objective of achieving 8 per cent growth in GDP, up from the current 5 per cent, a stated aim which critics are deeply sceptical about.
Achieving this target hinges on attracting substantial infrastructure investments designed to enhance connectivity and productivity across the archipelago, and enhance Indonesia's position as an attractive destination for foreign direct investments.
Internationally, Mr Prabowo will push for a more assertive Indonesia in multilateral groupings. An announcement of Indonesia's Brics partnership status within days of his assuming the top job, coupled with a declaration that South-east Asia's most populous country was ready for full membership, suggests Mr Prabowo is unafraid of breaking with positions taken by Mr Joko Widodo's administration.
But more likely is a scenario in which Mr Anwar finds an ally in Mr Prabowo, who is expected to lend strong support for Malaysia's Asean deliverables. These facilitate cross-border investments, supply chain connectivity and sustainable development, and are aligned with his administration's emphasis on "growth-oriented development".
The President's novel foreign policy approach, including improving relations with China and Russia, has sparked debate over whether his bold moves serve the country's broader strategic interests.
Political observers in the region's largest country will closely monitor how Mr Prabowo navigates the delicate balance between pursuing an ambitious global agenda and managing domestic criticism of his international decisions.
In this, perhaps Mr Prabowo's global activism illustrates one truth: Leaders need strong support at home, so they can steer their countries through challenging times.
The gambles awaiting Russia and Israel's moves
One other geopolitical uncertainty haunts South-east Asia in 2025: How the two hot wars will pan out. Prolonged conflict could squeeze prices of food, energy and critical commodities, countering efforts to bring down inflation and depressing growth prospects.
Developments in the European theatre will be determined by how Russia acts. 2025 could present one of the biggest gambles in the career of Russian President Putin, whose actions will weigh heavily on Europe.
2025 could present one of the biggest gambles of Russian President Vladimir Putin's career, whose actions will weigh heavily on Europe.PHOTO: AFP
At first, Russia's strategic prospects look better than at any time since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The Ukrainians are slowly retreating: A year ago, around 14 per cent of their territory was under Russian control; it is now at 20 per cent. The Europeans remain pledged to help Ukraine but are increasingly exhausted by the costs this commitment entails. Trump is determined to avoid American entanglement in an endless war. So Mr Putin may be tempted to push on, hoping to achieve the total victory over Ukraine that has eluded him for almost three years.
Yet, doing so also carries enormous risks for Russia. Trump wants to stop the war in Ukraine without being accused of presiding over a US capitulation similar to that suffered by the Americans in Afghanistan. He will insist on concessions from Russia in return for a ceasefire in Ukraine. If Russia refuses to compromise, Trump could well decide to continue arming the Ukrainians.
Although Mr Putin claims that Russia could continue fighting for many years to come, the Russian economy is beginning to feel the strain of its huge defence expenditure, with its central bank head raising the spectre of a future financial bailout by the International Monetary Fund. That Russia now relies on the use of North Korean soldiers as cannon fodder in the war does not inspire much confidence in Russia's resilience.
Persistent rumours suggest that a Putin-Trump summit is planned as early as February 2025, and the Russian leader will have to think long and hard about his options. He may choose to accept a ceasefire on Trump's terms in the hope that the West will forget about Ukraine sooner rather than later, and Russia will get a chance to resume its war. Or he may roll the dice by defying Trump and continuing the war.
One thing remains clear: Mr Putin will do everything he can to overturn the current strategic map of Europe. As one top Nato official puts it, there is a "real prospect" that "unconventional" attacks by Russia – including attempts to sabotage Western communication and transport infrastructure – may cause "substantial" casualties during 2025 and require a Nato military response. So, even if Mr Putin blinks first and a Ukrainian ceasefire materialises, the broader confrontation between Russia and the West will continue.
Hubris is also the most significant danger facing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who holds the key to developments in the Middle East.
A billboard in Tehran showing US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrayed against Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and General Mohammad Bagheri on Oct 27, 2024.PHOTO: ARASH KHAMOOSHI/NYTIMES
A year ago, fighting for political survival, he stood accused of failing to detect preparations for the Oct 7, 2023 incursion by Hamas, the Palestinian militant organisation based in Gaza, which resulted in the killing of the largest number of Israeli civilians in the history of the Jewish state. The Israeli military became embroiled in a vicious Gaza war with no end in sight.
In 12 months, while the Gaza war is far from over, Hamas is no longer a fighting force. Hezbollah, the Iranian-funded militia based in Lebanon, has been torn apart by the Israelis, its top leaders assassinated and most of its arsenal destroyed. Two successive Israeli air strikes dismantled Iran's air defences. At the same time, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad has been toppled, destabilising another key Iranian ally and sworn enemy of Israel.
Unsurprisingly, Mr Netanyahu's domestic popularity is now soaring. And with Trump – Mr Netanyahu's soulmate – soon back in the White House, talk in Tel Aviv now is no longer of just defeating Israel's immediate opponents but remaking the entire Middle East as Israel becomes a regional power.
Mr Netanyahu is undoubtedly at the peak of his powers. With Iran now at its most vulnerable in decades and most Arab countries consumed by their internal troubles, the Israeli leader retains the strategic initiative.
But his ascendancy will not go unchallenged for long. The plight of the Palestinians remains unaddressed. Hatred of Israel across the Middle East has seldom been higher. The Gaza war has cost Israel a large amount of goodwill around the world. And as friendly as Trump may be, the incoming US president is unlikely to underwrite a military offensive to destroy Iran's nuclear installation, as Mr Netanyahu now hopes.
Much will depend on how he leverages – or squanders – Israel's newfound position.
